about the energy crisis

In Taiwan, the oil price soars. But beside the oil, the other kinds of energy also costs us more and more money.

The government urges the public to save more energy by taking the public transportation, turn off the lights, and less air conditioner. Thats means the green lifestyle includes saving all kinds of power: oil, electricity, water, and etc.

I have a question: “When can we be less dependent on oil? And consume other renewable power? ” I have no idea. When I was a child, I wouldn’t think about that someday we have to face the crisis. It’s time to change.

Here is the news related to my question.

World energy use seen surging
Energy consumption expected to jump 50% by 2030; greenhouse gases will see similar rise. Oil prices seen ranging from $113 to $186 a barrel.

By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: June 25, 2008: 12:09 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — World energy use is expected to surge 50% from 2005 to 2030, largely due to an expanding population and rapid economic growth, according to a government report Wednesday.

Without any new laws restricting greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide emissions will see a similar jump, the Energy Information Administration said in its annual report on global energy markets.

Demand for new energy is led by the developing world, EIA said.

While developed countries are expected to see a 19% rise in energy use, demand for energy in the developing world is expected to surge 85%.

Oil prices are expected to range from $113 to $186 a barrel, under different price scenarios the agency modeled.

“Given current market conditions, it appears that world oil prices are on a path that more closely resembles the projection in the high price case than in the reference case,” the report said.

Under the high price case, world oil use is expected to grow to 99 million barrels a day in 2030, from about 85 million barrels a day currently, as high prices limit demand.

In the medium price case, worldwide oil use is expected to jump to 113 million barrels a day, EIA said, as oil prices ease to about $70 in the next few years and new supplies come online.

The projections in the report were based on 2007 oil prices. Oil has nearly doubled in price since then.

Although the government and the oil companies say producing 113 million barrels of oil a day is possible, market skepticism has kept oil prices high over the last few years.

The International Energy Agency, a sister organization to EIA established by developed countries to counter the influence of OPEC, recently said it is revising its assumptions about oil supply. That agency said it’s likely the world will not be able to produce more than 100 million barrels of oil a day by 2030.

Others in the industry, like the oilman T. Boone Pickens, feel the world is pretty much maxed out at 85 million barrels a day.

“The key here is going to be supply,” said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London. “And we’re thinking closer to 100 [million barrels a day] as opposed to 115.”

The report also said that rising prices are expected to decrease the use of oil and biofuels as a fuel, going from 37% of the world’s energy use in 2005 to 33% in 2030, although liquids will remain the largest single source of energy.

Production of so called non-conventional liquid fuels – things like ethanol, coal-to-liquid, heavy oil and oil from tar sands – is expected to see a big increase.

Under the medium price scenario, these unconventional fuels go from 2.5 million barrels a day in 2005 to nearly 10 million barrels a day in 2030. Under the high price scenario, these numbers could be much higher, the report said.

Without any new greenhouse gas restrictions, coal use is expected to soar – increasing 64% by 2030.

China – which the report said has doubled its coal use since 2000 – is leading the way, accounting for over 70% of new coal consumption.

China, along with India and the U.S., has huge amounts of coal, which is a cheap but dirty fuel.

Electricity generation under the medium prices scenario is expected to nearly double by 2030, the report said, fueled mainly by coal and natural gas.

But future legislation could curb those predictions. The agency noted that “the outlook for fossil-fuel-fired generation could be altered substantially by international agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

Nuclear power is expected to increase by nearly 50%, the report said, mostly in India and China.

Use of renewable energy is expected to increase nearly 70% by 2030. But much of that is due to large hydropower projects, and under current policies, renewables’ overall contribution to global energy supply remains small.

Briefing: Oil

We rely on it to power our everyday lives, and it drives the economy worldwide, but oil faces an uncertain future in the 21st century. Black gold is increasingly expensive, environmentally damaging and, in the view of some experts, increasingly scarce.

How much oil do we currently consume?

In short, a lot. We get through around 30 billion barrels a year currently, which amounts to around 82 million barrels every day.

Consumption varies enormously around the world, but no prizes for guessing who uses the most. The United States guzzles a quarter of all oil produced, China, at the moment, comes a distant second with around 9 percent and Japan third with 6.5 percent.

Who are the world’s biggest producers?

In 2006, the U.S. Energy Information Administration figures for production reveal that Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest oil producer, with 10.6 million barrels being filled every day, Russia produces 9.6 million and the U.S. 8.3 million.

According to an OECD International Transport Forum discussion paper published in 2007 there are around 47,000 oil fields in the world. But only a fraction of these — around 500 – are considered ‘giant’ — harboring upwards of 500 million barrels.

Why has oil become so expensive?

In January 2008, oil prices reached the not so magic $100 figure. Five months on and a barrel of light sweet crude oil is pushing towards $130. Some, like Goldman Sachs and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) think oil might soon cost upwards of $200 a barrel. Good for the oil companies who are posting record profits — watch John Hofmeister, president of Shell Oil Company, the U.S. division of Royal Dutch Shell defend rising profits — but bad for industry and consumers.

The reason for the rise in prices is, on the face of it, a simple tale of supply and demand.

The last big oil crisis during the 1970s was more to do with supply when an Arab oil embargo made oil scarce and sent prices skyward.

In recent years though, the exponential growth of the economies in China and India has meant the story is one of demand. Couple this with a rise in car ownership — 500 million in 1990 to around 750 million in 2008. If predictions are correct then expect that figure to almost double by 2030.

If you throw in planes and trains to go with all the automobiles along with shipping and it’s not difficult to understand why oil demand is rising so much.

According to the International Energy Agency’s 2007 Key World Energy Statistics report, just over 60 percent of all the oil produced in 2005 found its way into a petrol tank of one description or another.

Booming economies like China’s also need oil to make their goods. Not just to power the production lines, but to make a range of products we all consume every day.

All this demand has put a strain on oil refineries whose costs and workload have risen in recent years. New environmental regulations requiring ‘cleaner’ grades of petrol have added to their burden. The recent strike by workers at the Grangemouth refinery in Scotland threatened to pile further misery on British motorists and highlighted the economic and political sensitivity that oil demand is creating.

Aren’t there problems with supply as well?

Yes. Tension over supplies has never really gone away either, especially in the Middle East where decades of disagreements and conflict have continued to feed uncertainty into global stock markets. Terrorist activities and the consequent disruption to oil supplies in other parts of the world — notably in Nigeria — still provoke a collective fit of the jitters amongst economists.

Will we ever run out of oil?

All of the world’s resources are finite so we will run out at some point. The big debate at the moment is about when oil production will peak — i.e. when half of oil stocks have been used and production begins to slow.

Texan born geophysicist Dr M. King Hubbert first came up with the peak oil theory — known as ‘Hubbert’s peak’ — in the 1950s, arguing that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. He was right. And since 1981, the world has been using more oil than it has been finding.

So how much oil is left?

OPEC states that there were oil reserves of 1.1 trillion barrels in 2006, of which they control over three quarters. They predict that current stocks will last 81 years if consumption remained at 2006 levels — 76 million barrels per day (mb/d).

But according to Professor Kjell Aleklett of Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas (ASPO International) peak oil is going to happen a lot sooner.

“We have a decline in production at today’s oil fields of roughly 4 percent a year. At current production levels [82mb/d] that means we are going to lose 30 million barrels a day over the next ten years,” Aleklett told CNN.

Aleklett, a Professor of Physics at Uppsala University, Sweden is concerned about the production problem allied to growing consumption.

He highlights the current situation in China. The Chinese economy is growing at around 10 percent each year and oil production in the country at full capacity. This means that China will have to import much more oil than the current figure of 3.5 mb/d. “This will push the demand for oil to a completely different scale,” Aleklett said.

He believes that the worst-case scenario for peak oil is a plateau from 2007 — 2012 before oil production starts to decline. The best case will be that production will go up to 93 mb/d. But he thinks that this would require the 10 giant oil fields in Iraq to go into production now.

But a report by the influential energy advisor Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) published in January 2008 takes a different view. Oil is not running out they say, predicting supply will top 100 mb/d by 2017.

But surely we’ll keep on finding oil to replace depleted stocks?

Well, Brazil and Mexico have found big oil fields in recent years and oil companies are investing heavily in Canadian oil sands in Alberta where it’s thought to be plentiful. But like the tar sands of the Orinoco Belt in Venezuela this oil is difficult and expensive to extract, as well as being environmentally controversial.

Professor Aleklett remains pessimistic about increased rates of discovery in the coming years. “If you look at the discovery trends over the past 40 years, we will find 150 billion barrels in the next 30 years. If you are consuming 30 billion barrels every year means that that stock will last five years,” he said.

Bush asks Congress to clear way for offshore oil drilling

Bush asks Congress to clear way for offshore oil drilling

WASHINGTON (CNN) — President Bush asked Congress on Wednesday to permit drilling for oil in deep water off America’s coasts to combat rising oil and gas prices.

“There is no excuse for delay,” the president said in a Rose Garden statement.

Bush also renewed his demand that Congress allow drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, clear the way for more refineries and encourage efforts to recover oil from shale in areas such as the Green River Basin of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming.

Bush said that the basin potentially contains more than three times as much recoverable oil as Saudi Arabia’s proven reserves and that the high price of oil makes it profitable to extract it. Watch Bush make a case for new drilling »

“In the short run, the American economy will continue to rely largely on oil, and that means we need to increase supply here at home,” Bush said, adding hat there is no more pressing issue for many Americans than gas prices. Map: See where drilling is and isn’t allowed »

Meanwhile, Wednesday at an energy forum in Springfield, Missouri, Sen. John McCain continued his pitch for offshore drilling.

“In the short term, this requires more domestic production, especially in the Outer Continental Shelf. We need to encourage production in ways that are consistent with sensible standards of environmental protection. And in states that permit exploration, there must be a sharing of benefits between state and federal governments. But as a matter of fairness to the American people, we must assure affordable fuel for America by increasing domestic production,” the presumed Republican presidential nominee said.

The White House estimates that there are 18 billion barrels of oil offshore that have not been exploited because of state bans, 10 billion to 12 billion in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Green River Basin. iReport.com: Is drilling the best option?

However, much of the U.S. oil is difficult or impossible to extract under current law.

As for gas prices, resuming offshore exploration would not be a quick fix.

“If we were to drill today, realistically speaking, we should not expect a barrel of oil coming out of this new resource for three years, maybe even five years, so let’s not kid ourselves,” said Fadel Gheit, oil and gas analyst with Oppenheimer & Co. Equity Capital Markets Division.

But it almost certainly would be profitable.

Candida Scott, an oil industry researcher at Cambridge Research Associates, said oil needs to be priced at $60 a barrel or more to justify deep-shelf drilling. With oil now selling for $134 a barrel, companies are almost assured of profiting from offshore drilling, Scott said.

“For years, the president has pushed Congress to expand our domestic oil supply, but Democrats in Congress have consistently blocked such action,” White House press secretary Dana Perino said before Bush spoke.

She added, “As with several existing Republican congressional proposals, he wants to work with states to determine where offshore drilling should occur, and also for the federal government to share revenues with the states. The president believes Congress shouldn’t waste any more time.” Watch interests compete over oil »

Democrats were quick to reject Bush’s proposal.

“After eight years, President Bush and [Vice President] Dick Cheney have turned the GOP into the Gas and Oil Party. That’s the legacy that they are going to leave,” said Rep. Edward Markey of Massachusetts, chairman of the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.

“The White House has become a ventriloquist for the oil and gas industry, repeating the requests of the oil and gas industry: that they be allowed to destroy the most pristine areas of our country,” Markey added.

Congressional Democrats introduced a bill last week to compel oil companies to begin utilizing federal land they already lease.

“Oil companies are sitting on 68 million acres they have already leased from the American people for the purpose of oil and natural gas production,” said Sen. Bob Menendez, D-New Jersey.

“It is about time they use these resources already at their disposal instead of waiting for more federal handouts and pushing to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge or up and down our coasts,” he added.

Bush’s request came a day after McCain issued the same call at a campaign event in Houston, Texas.

“We have proven oil reserves of at least 21 billion barrels in the United States,” he said. “But a broad federal moratorium stands in the way of energy exploration and production. And I believe it is time for the federal government to lift these restrictions and to put our own reserves to use.” Watch McCain state his new position on drilling »

He said that lifting the ban could be done “in ways that are consistent with sensible standards of environmental protection.”

Opponents of offshore drilling say it would harm aquatic ecosystems by eroding wetlands, contaminating the water with chemicals, polluting the air, killing fish and dumping waste.

McCain made clear that he favors continuing the ban on drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

“Quite rightly, I believe, we confer a special status on some areas of our country that are best left undisturbed. When America set aside the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, we called it a ‘refuge’ for a reason,” he said.

McCain’s plan would let individual states decide whether to explore drilling possibilities.

According to his campaign, presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama wants to invest $150 billion over the next 10 years to establish a green energy sector, create a national low-carbon fuel standard to ensure that the fuel is more efficient, and invest in clean energies like solar, wind and biodiesel.

New drilling already could be in the works 50 miles off the Florida coast — by Cubans, not Americans, with help from China and other allies. A rich undersea oil field stretches into Cuban waters near the Florida Keys.
“The people I represent can’t understand how we can possibly let China end up with rights to our oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico because we say we’re not going to do it and they say, ‘OK, we’ll do it, and we’ll work with Cuba, if we have to, to do it,’ ” said U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp, R-Tennessee. “That’s really asinine.”

CNN’s Ed Henry, Richard Greene, Brianna Keilar, Hussein Saddique and Ali Velshi contributed to this report.